526
ACUS03 KWNS 111929
SWODY3
SPC AC 111928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2025
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY FROM MONTANA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH HAIL AND CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
DOWNSTREAM, CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIANCE REMAINS REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
OZARKS VICINITY. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN, BUT EXTENSIVE CONVECTION IN ITS VICINITY ON
D1/WEDNESDAY INTO D2/THURSDAY RESULTS IN GREATER THAN NORMAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION BY D3/FRIDAY.
..MT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A LEE CYCLONE WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO
PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY. MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY AS STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT/WY, WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS MAY GROW UPSCALE
BY EVENING, WITH CORRIDORS OF STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE.
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, BUT STILL SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MODESTLY ORGANIZED STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS COULD EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NE/KS BY EVENING, AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET AND ACCOMPANIED BY A SEVERE-WIND THREAT. FARTHER
SOUTH, STORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED HAIL AND SEVERE-WIND POTENTIAL.
..OZARKS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY VICINITY
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SLOW-MOVING
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE OZARKS, CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF
STORM EVOLUTION NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW ARE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. IN GENERAL, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY, WITHIN A MOIST, MODERATELY UNSTABLE,
AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
INTENSITY, BUT ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS A BROAD AREA, GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF
STORMS.
IF CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW RESULTS IN
STRONGER WIND PROFILES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, OR IF STORMS CAN
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW (WHERE LAPSE RATES
AND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER, BUT FORCING WILL BE WEAKER), THEN A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT COULD EVOLVE. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT
APPEARS TOO NEBULOUS FOR SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
FARTHER NORTH, A STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY, THOUGH A LACK OF
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FRONTAL
POSITION RESULT IN LIMITED CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY LOCALIZED SEVERE
THREAT.
..MID ATLANTIC VICINITY
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO EXPECTED
FROM PARTS PA SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS FRIDAY.
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
MODEST WESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME COULD SUPPORT A FEW
STRONG CELLS/CLUSTERS. POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FLOW BELOW
700 MB MAY TEND TO LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, BUT
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..DEAN.. 06/11/2025
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