207
ACUS03 KWNS 121927
SWODY3
SPC AC 121927
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2025
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR ON SATURDAY OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY OCCUR
FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS
THE HIGHEST STORM COVERAGE IN THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE WITHIN EASTERN
WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA GIVEN A SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH AROUND 30-40
KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING, SCATTERED STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING AND FOCUS IN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ELEVATED STORMS FARTHER EAST IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE LARGE
AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. THOUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS CONDITIONAL, LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO THIS AREA GIVEN THE HAIL/ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE NORTHWEST,
THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LINGERING, SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS ARE THE LIKELY
HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY FROM OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE
LOCATION OF WHERE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THE SURFACE HEATS, BUT THE
GENERAL THEME IS THAT A CONTINUATION OF OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY OR
PERHAPS DEVELOPMENT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE. SHEAR
WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, PARTICULARLY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, BUT
LARGE MLCAPE IN A MOIST, UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT A
CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH.
..MID-SOUTH INTO MID-ATLANTIC
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS AS
A LOW-AMPLITUDE, DIFFUSE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD. POOR
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT, AGAIN, HIGHLIGHTING AN
AREA OF GREATER ORGANIZATION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
..WENDT.. 06/12/2025
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