274
ACUS03 KWNS 131931
SWODY3
SPC AC 131930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2025
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST MONTANA
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
..MONTANA/DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA
THE PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW MODERATE MID-LEVEL
WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS A STRONGER COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE
TROUGHING WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE AREA. STRONG SHEAR
AND LARGE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL WITH
INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS SIGNIFICANT WIND WITH A CLUSTER/MCS
THAT COULD DEVELOP AND PERSIST TO THE EAST. WITH PRECEDING DAYS OF
CONVECTION POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE OVERALL QUALITY OF THE
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA AT
PRESENT. TRENDS IN GUIDANCE WILL BE MONITORED.
..KANSAS/SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKANSAS
AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS, THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE SEVERE RISK
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE CONVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY EXISTS. THERE
IS AT LEAST MODEST AGREEMENT WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT CONVECTION
WITHIN EASTERN KANSAS COULD INTENSIFY INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. MODEST FLOW ENHANCEMENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE BROAD
TROUGH WOULD PROMOTE MARGINAL STORM ORGANIZATION. FURTHERMORE, A
THETA-E GRADIENT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION. WITH
2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE PRESENT, SOME THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE
PRESENT.
..NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME, FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS
WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AN MCV
COULD APPROACH PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
AND CLOUD COVER WILL HINDER SURFACE HEATING FOR SOME AREAS. SHOULD
THESE CONDITIONS ALIGN, STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE GIVEN MODEST ORGANIZATION PROMOTED BY THE MCV.
..WENDT.. 06/13/2025
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