852
ACUS03 KWNS 140717
SWODY3
SPC AC 140716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN U.S.
..GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO INITIATE NEAR THE FRONT AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE DURING THE
DAY. THESE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 21Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG AND NEAR THE INSTABILITY AXIS MOSTLY HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE
30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE, WITH 700 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL, MAINLY EARLY IN THE EVENT. MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, SUGGESTING THAT A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE COULD TAKE PLACE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. LINEAR MODE WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A
WIND-DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE
MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE EVENING, WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA, ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, ALONG ZONES OF MAXIMIZED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER MUCH OF THE MOIST AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
ANY CONVECTION THAT INITIATES WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME LAYER OF WARM
AIR AROUND 800 MB. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 06/14/2025
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