080
ACUS48 KWNS 140900
SWOD48
SPC AC 140859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
..DISCUSSION
..TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND WEDNESDAY/DAY 5
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST BY
AFTERNOON FROM KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE ALONG PARTS OF THE FRONT.
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION,
SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD BECOME ORGANIZED. SUPERCELLS AND SHORT
INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES ON WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE BY
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ALONG PARTS OF
THE FRONT. MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG AND NEAR MUCH
OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS, SUGGESTING THAT A SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..THURSDAY/DAY 6 TO SATURDAY/DAY 8
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT,
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE ISSUES OF FRONTAL TIMING AND
INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE.
FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. FOR THIS REASON, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW CONCERNING ANY
POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 06/14/2025
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