249
ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN U.S.
..SYNOPSIS
A BELT OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/HIGH
PLAINS ON D3/MONDAY, DAMPENING RIDGE HEIGHTS AND CREATING A MORE OF
A ZONAL FLOW REGIME. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO, WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...GREAT PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST..
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN DAKOTAS BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE WILL BE MLCIN IN PLACE
ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WEAKENING WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALONG EXPECTED
TO BE GREATEST IN THE REGION FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE ADVANCING WAVE AND COLD FRONT, WHICH SHOULD
AID ERODING OF REMAINING CIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LARGELY PARALLEL TO
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ENCOURAGE LINEAR MODES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GIVEN STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS SHOULD
ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MID-WEST
THROUGH TIME.
MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER MLCIN
BENEATH HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT MORE
MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
MOIST AIR MASS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT, WITH
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
..THORNTON.. 06/14/2025
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