859
ACUS11 KWNS 142316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142315
OKZ000-TXZ000-150115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1290
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN OK INTO EXTREME
NORTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142315Z - 150115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE
WITH TIME THIS EVENING. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTHWEST OK, WITHIN AN AREA OF CUMULUS NEAR A REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. ANOTHER STORM HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY (WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-4500 J/KG) IS IN
PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH MODEST NORTHWESTERLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW PROVIDING 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, DUE TO RATHER NEBULOUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER, AT
LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 01 UTC,
WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME LATER THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. LARGE TO LOCALLY VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALSO SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
THIS EVENING, AND WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 06/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 36509984 36729845 36679659 35409629 33709655 33659845
34349889 34939943 35349964 35899973 36509984
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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