939
ACUS11 KWNS 142347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142347
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-150145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1291
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NE...SOUTHEAST
SD...NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 142347Z - 150145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH MID
EVENING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST NE/SOUTHEAST SD INTO
NORTHWEST IA. MODERATE BUOYANCY (MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG) IS
IN PLACE ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, THOUGH DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK. STORMS THUS FAR HAVE EXHIBITED PULSE TO WEAK MULTICELL
CHARACTERISTICS, THOUGH ONE STORM DID PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL EARLIER IN
NORTHWEST IA. ISOLATED HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS, ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
WINDS. GENERALLY LIMITED STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD TEND TO HAMPER
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING, BUT
SOME ISOLATED POTENTIAL COULD PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 06/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42809811 43469688 43309500 43019320 42789282 42569266
42169280 41799313 41439346 41939480 42129556 42189657
42179728 42189749 42129798 42809811
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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