754
ACUS11 KWNS 150857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150856
OKZ000-TXZ000-151100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT WESTERN
OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150856Z - 151100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH A SMALL DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IS NEEDED, BUT THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGER THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO EVOLVE, AND TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...A SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING CELL
APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING AT LEAST SOME INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY, WITH A SMALL STRENGTHENING
SURFACE COLD POOL AND REAR INFLOW EVIDENT, WHICH RECENTLY PRODUCED A
GUST TO 45 KT AT GUYMON OK. BASED ON OBJECTIVE INSTABILITY ANALYSES
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE SUPPORT FOR THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION
IS A BIT UNCLEAR. HOWEVER, FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION, NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLING (SOUTHWESTERLY
UP TO 40 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 1 KM AGL) MAY BE A CONTRIBUTOR.
THIS LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROBABLY NOW PAST PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
STRENGTHENING COLD POOL MAY MAINTAIN THE SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH PERHAPS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SIZABLE
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS, MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE MIGHT STILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, IN THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT (ON THE
ORDER OF 10-15 KT), BUT MODESTLY SHEARED NORTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
MEAN FLOW.
..KERR/GLEASON.. 06/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36180118 36410079 35719950 34929967 34570093 35360172
35760144 36180118
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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