928
ACUS03 KWNS 151929
SWODY3
SPC AC 151928
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2025
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
INTO EASTERN KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH
A COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF LOWER MI EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO KS.
MEANWHILE, A LARGER/LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND TO THE HIGH PLANS BY 00Z. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST TX.
A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF KS, MO,
OK AND AR, WITH MUCAPE OF 4000-5000 J/KG POSSIBLE, SUPPORTING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS OR REMNANTS WILL AFFECT NE INTO NORTHERN
OR EASTERN KS EARLY ON TUESDAY. GIVEN STRONG DESTABILIZATION EAST OF
THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY, A DAMAGING WIND RISK COULD PERSIST INTO
PARTS OF IA AND MO.
LATER IN THE DAY, THE AIR MASS SOUTH AND WEST OF ANY SUCH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW) WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. WHILE
CAPPING WILL LIMIT SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT, OVER OK AND THE
PANHANDLES, HOT TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THOSE REGIONS
WILL COMBINE WITH MID 70S F DEWPOINTS OVER KS YIELDING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY OLD OUTFLOWS WHERE SRH WILL
BE MAXIMIZED. BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET TO 50 KT WILL
SUPPORT A SEVERE MCS ACROSS KS AND PERHAPS INTO WESTERN MO LATE.
DAMAGING AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL.. 06/15/2025
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