474
FNUS21 KWNS 171640
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025
VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE A BROAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT AND WEST WINDS OF
20-25 MPH ATOP DRY FUELS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
..WILLIAMS.. 06/17/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1256 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY. WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A BELT OF
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH, A
LEE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHILE
A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING DRYLINE SHARPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
..WESTERN NM AND EASTERN AZ
IN THE WAKE OF POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES, STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING OF A DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD SINGLE-DIGIT RH ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND NM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE ENHANCED
DEEP-LAYER FLOW, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERIPHERAL TO THE LEE CYCLONE, WILL SUPPORT 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AMID THE LOW RH AND HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL FAVOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ATOP
DRY FUELS IN WESTERN NM AND FAR EASTERN AZ.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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