696
ACUS03 KWNS 190731
SWODY3
SPC AC 190730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ON SATURDAY WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY,
WITH A SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST, AND AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF
THE LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW REGARDING THE DETAILS OF SEVERE-STORM
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY, THOUGH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL REMAINS EVIDENT
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. AN MCS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATE
ON D2/FRIDAY MAY BE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD (AND POSSIBLY POSING A SEVERE-WIND
THREAT), THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BULK OF THIS MCS WILL BE IN
ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MCS (OR ITS REMNANT MCV) MAY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NY/PA BY EVENING, AND
COULD POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT IF IT DOES NOT BECOME DISPLACED FROM
THE BUOYANCY RESERVOIR TO ITS SOUTHWEST.
SOME REDEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE POTENTIAL
MORNING MCS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. BUOYANCY AND SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW REGARDING COVERAGE AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME.
..NORTHERN PLAINS
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ON D2/FRIDAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN MT, AND COULD POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ACROSS
EASTERN MT LATER IN THE DAY, BUT IF SOME DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR, THEN ASCENT RELATED TO THE WESTERN TROUGH MAY AID IN
ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, AND THE
GREATEST RELATIVE THREAT FOR A COUPLE SUPERCELLS AND/OR AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF ND DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..DEAN.. 06/19/2025
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