931
ACUS48 KWNS 190847
SWOD48
SPC AC 190845
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0345 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
..DISCUSSION
..D4/SUNDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON MORE OF
A POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY, AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
MIDLEVEL JET MAXIMUM MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.
AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES, AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING FRONTAL TIMING,
THOUGH GENERALLY AGREES THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND
TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT.
WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR/NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS/MN, AND ALSO ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
..D5/MONDAY - D8/THURSDAY
THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR DEAMPLIFICATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES MAY EMERGE FROM THE PERSISTENT (THOUGH WEAKENING) WESTERN
TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES, AND POSSIBLY
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW
REGARDING THE DETAILS OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREATS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
..DEAN.. 06/19/2025
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