104
FNUS21 KWNS 191702
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEVADA
WESTERN
UTAH...AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE NEEDED. A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. DRY FUELS, LOW HUMIDITY AND
EXPANSIVE AREA OF 20-25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FAST
MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OREGON LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING BUT COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, CLOUD COVER AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM HIGHLIGHTS.
..WILLIAMS.. 06/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0206 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
WITHIN THE BASE OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS, A SWATH OF MODERATE-STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD CENTRAL CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. IN RESPONSE,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
SEPARATELY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY.
..GREAT BASIN
DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 90S TO
100 F AND RH FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING INTO THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT, COUPLED WITH A TIGHTENING
REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
20-25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS).
THE GREATEST OVERLAP OF THESE STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LOW RH IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN NV AND WESTERN UT INTO EASTERN NV AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN AZ. GIVEN DRY/RECEPTIVE FUELS OVER THESE AREAS,
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
..SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND VICINITY
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS WHERE FUELS ARE
RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD.
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
FAVOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OR
INTO CENTRAL ID DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FUELS ARE ONLY MODESTLY RECEPTIVE TO
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS -- PRECLUDING DRY THUNDERSTORM
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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