284
ACUS03 KWNS 191926
SWODY3
SPC AC 191925
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO NEW YORK...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM ID INTO CANADA, WITH A MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. A BELT OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
FROM THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN MT, COINCIDENT WITH A
TIGHT MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND FROM MN INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH DRIER
WESTERLY WINDS FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS.
TO THE EAST, AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE TN VALLEY,
WITH RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST. WHILE EARLY DAY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN A WARM
ADVECTION ZONE FROM NORTHERN WI ACROSS MI AND INTO NORTHERN OH, THE
RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
LATE DAY/EVENING STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NY INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE AIDED BY THETA-E ADVECTION AT 850 MB OUT OF THE WEST. GIVEN THIS
INFLUX OF INSTABILITY, POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL
STORMS WITH HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.
TO THE WEST, WHILE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE, DAYTIME/EVENING DEVELOPMENT IS LESS CERTAIN GIVEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND MINIMAL LIFT. HOWEVER, HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH COULD BE A FAVORED AREA OF ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT.
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS OR MARGINAL HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS.
..JEWELL.. 06/19/2025
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