678
ACUS11 KWNS 210115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210115
MNZ000-NDZ000-210315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1386
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...
VALID 210115Z - 210315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED CORRIDOR OF HIGHER TORNADO AND VERY LARGE HAIL
(2-3 INCHES) POTENTIAL MAY BE EMERGING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES, A LONE SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN
SIGNS OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION BASED ON
REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY IMAGERY, LIVE WEB FEEDS, AND A RECENT REPORT
OF GOLF BALL-SIZED HAIL. ADDITIONALLY, 1-MINUTE GOES IR IMAGERY
SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE TOWERS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL CELL WITHIN A ZONE OF PRONOUNCED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY BUOYANT AND STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT, CONTINUED STORM INTENSIFICATION APPEARS PROBABLE OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS MIGRATE NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER. ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AT THE MOMENT GIVEN
THEIR INITIATION ZONE ATOP A STABLE STRATUS DECK, STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STORMS BECOMING
SURFACE-BASED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THIS OCCURS, STORMS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN INGESTING THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH WITHIN THE
FRONTAL ZONE (AS HINTED AT BY RECENT RAP SOUNDINGS AND A MODIFIED
00Z BIS SOUNDING), AND WILL POSE AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO. AN INCREASE IN THE
LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY BOLSTER LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE TORNADO RISK. ADDITIONALLY,
THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE (2-3
INCH) HAIL STONES. THIS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOCALIZED ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL ND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FOCUSED INITIATION
ZONE/MECHANISM.
..MOORE.. 06/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46429912 46729921 47089890 47589807 47679768 47639727
47569698 47449683 47229681 47039687 46859700 46709710
46559736 46409799 46359868 46359897 46429912
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page