720
ACUS11 KWNS 210304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210304
NDZ000-210430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 448...
VALID 210304Z - 210430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 448 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A DERECHO SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 75-100
MPH WINDS REMAIN A CONCERN, AND A FEW MESOVORTEX-GENERATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A MATURE, INTENSE BOW ECHO IS RAPIDLY PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AT AROUND 70 KTS, AND IS TRAVERSING A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, WHERE OVER 4000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 60-80 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS PRESENT. FURTHERMORE, THESE SHEAR VECTORS
ARE ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE BOW ECHO. SEVERAL MEASURED 75-100 MPH
GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED, AND GIVEN THE PRECEDING AMBIENT CONDITIONS AND
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, THIS BOW ECHO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE GUSTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A DERECHO IS IN
PROGRESS, SO 60+ MPH WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE OCCURRING ON A MORE
WIDESPREAD BASIS, AS SUGGESTED BY MANY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT-SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO MESOVORTICES, SPECIFICALLY WHERE MESOVORTEX WINDS ALIGN
WITH THE REAR-INFLOW JET. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE MESOVORTICES.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/21/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46389845 46149901 46040034 46120087 46290087 46610063
46870055 47180077 47610056 47780014 47659877 47309829
46879827 46389845
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page