484
ACUS03 KWNS 211914
SWODY3
SPC AC 211914
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON MONDAY, FROM
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AS WELL AS UPPER
RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY. THE
EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN U.S. ON DAY 2 (SUNDAY) WILL EJECT INTO ONTARIO ON
MONDAY. AS SUCH, OVERALL SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NONETHELESS, SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING AND A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS THE IMPETUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE ADEQUATE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE
ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, ENCOURAGING
MAINLY MULTICELLULAR/LINEAR STRUCTURES. 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE, AMID 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, DRIVEN BY 7 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. AS SUCH, THE MORE
ROBUST, LONGER-LIVED STORMS MAY SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE
WIND AND/OR HAIL.
..PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AS
WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON PEAK
HEATING. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO THE GREAT
LAKES, THOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE STEEPER (I.E. OVER 8.5
C/KM), YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES AT LEAST IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE.
AS SUCH, ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE PULSE CELLULAR OR MULTICELLULAR
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE FEW SEVERE GUSTS.
..NEW ENGLAND
STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME BUOYANCY, DRIVEN BY A RESIDUAL EML, WILL
MEANDER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. UPPER
SUPPORT IS LACKING FOR APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC.
HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF A TRAILING STRAY STORM OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
POTENTIALLY IMPINGING ON NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
..SQUITIERI.. 06/21/2025
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