977
ACUS03 KWNS 220731
SWODY3
SPC AC 220730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEST, WHILE AN EXPANSIVE
UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN
CONUS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER WEST, AN OUTFLOW-INFLUENCED FRONT
WILL BE DRAPED FROM CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INTO PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT HIGH TERRAIN AREAS ON
TUESDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN TROUGH. HOWEVER, VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, LOCALIZED SEVERE
GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES INTO LOWER TERRAIN, THOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WHERE WIND PROFILES APPEAR MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, FROM EASTERN WY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT
LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER COMPARED TO D2/MONDAY, BUT
MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY WILL STILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. LOOSELY ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND, AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL.
..LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WILL
RESULT IN SOME DAMPENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THIS REGION, THOUGH
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE FRONT. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION, THOUGH COVERAGE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
FOR THIS AREA, AND GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED IF TRENDS SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE.
..DEAN.. 06/22/2025
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