713
ACUS03 KWNS 221922
SWODY3
SPC AC 221921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
WYOMING AND VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EAST WILL FLATTEN ON TUESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, WITH THE STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. TO THE WEST, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY, AS A WEAKENING
AND LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES FROM UT INTO WY THROUGH 00Z. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, PROVIDING
COOLING ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING OVER THE PLAINS.
A BOUNDARY FROM LOWER MI INTO NE WILL SURGE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, WITH BACKED/EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THIS
FRONT ALLOWING FOR NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS AS FAR WEST AS EASTERN WY.
LATE IN THE DAY, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE QUEBEC UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NY, PA, AND NEW ENGLAND, PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR STORMS AS THE ANTECEDENT AIR MASS WILL BE UNSTABLE.
..NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF NE AND KS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO LOWER MI, BUT PROBABLY NOT SEVERE AT THAT TIME.
AS HEATING OCCURS, RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE, BOTH ALONG THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OR WITH ANY MCVS OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PRIMARILY YIELD SPORADIC CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER WEST INTO EASTERN WY AND NORTHEAST CO, SUPERCELL POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING, AS MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW EVENTUALLY BECOMES UNCAPPED GENERALLY EAST OF A CASPER TO
CHEYENNE TO DENVER LINE. AIDED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES/HEATING OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, AND THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, WIDELY SCATTERED
CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH LARGE HAIL THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE CAPPING WILL BE AN ISSUE
AFTER DARK, THE LIFTING WARM FRONT MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS
INTO WESTERN SD/NE.
..NORTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT RELATIVELY WARM PROFILES
ALOFT, THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE. GIVEN THIS,
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LAKE HURON EASTWARD
INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE DAY. AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
TIMED NEAR PEAK HEATING, LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 06/22/2025
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