884
ACUS02 KWNS 231726
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY FROM EASTERN WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA, THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, AND NORTHEAST
COLORADO. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST.
..SYNOPSIS
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS ON TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD, REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST, AND START TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS WEAK LEE TROUGHING OCCURS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. INHIBITION
SHOULD BE MOSTLY ERODED BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. THE EXTENSIVE NATURE
OF THE CONVECTION, COMBINED WITH ONLY MARGINAL SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS) MAY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT MESSY STORM MODE. HOWEVER, EARLY IN
THE STORM LIFECYCLE, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT SOME 2+ INCH HAIL. AS STORMS CONGEAL, ONE OR
MORE FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
..IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE GREAT LAKES
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION AND WEAK SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALONG THE
MOSTLY STALLED FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
TUESDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-4C AT 500MB) WILL BE THE
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER,
ENHANCED FORCING/FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF ONE OR MORE MCVS (LIKELY
REMAINING FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION) MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SOME STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS.
..NORTHEAST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. SHEAR SHOULD BE MOSTLY WEAK WITH LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS OF TROPOSPHERIC UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. HOWEVER, THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..CAROLINAS VICINITY
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS WITH RELATIVELY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING
STORMS WITHIN THIS PATTERN WOULD BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE
PHENOMENON. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WARM
TEMPERATURES AROUND 750MB MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100F BASED ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE
GUIDANCE WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE HAS FORECAST DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 70S AND NOT AS STRONG OF A WARM NOSE BELOW 700MB. IF THIS
SOLUTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY, A MARGINAL MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED,
BUT THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TOO UNLIKELY FOR PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 06/23/2025
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