130
ACUS03 KWNS 231931
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND THE
MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN A
CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST, AND ALSO ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MUCH OF FLORIDA
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL START TO WEAKEN ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE
PLAINS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS, AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND EAST FROM
THIS SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT AND NEAR THE
INTERSECTION WITH THE DRYLINE/SURFACE LOW. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT WEAK, STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL VENTING/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME SUPERCELL
ORGANIZATION.
STRONGER FLOW WILL BE PRESENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IF LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS CAN ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY.
..MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THEIR COMPOSITE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY REINFORCE THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE WEATHER, BUT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS. STRONG HEATING
IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY FROM VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY WHERE ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
REMAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRENGTHENING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MOSTLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
..BENTLEY.. 06/23/2025
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