916
FNUS22 KWNS 231959
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
..SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS REGION
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE GREATER FOUR CORNERS REGION. EFFICIENT DAYTIME BOUNDARY
LATER MIXING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A CORRIDOR OF BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AMID AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15 PERCENT TO PROMOTE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA, SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.
..NORTHERN NEVADA
SOME CONVECTION AIDED BY HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY/MOISTURE PROFILES
ALONG WITH MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS (ERC VALUES IN THE 80-85 PERCENTILE
RANGE) SHOULD LIMIT IGNITION EFFICIENCY OF SLOW MOVING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
..WILLIAMS.. 06/23/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0111 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN/LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND SLOWLY DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER PARTS
OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/WESTERN FOUR CORNERS REGION. ALTHOUGH
PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID/UPPER TEENS,
DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MIXING OF A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE
FREQUENT GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION - ESPECIALLY FROM
NORTHERN AZ INTO EASTERN UT AND SOUTHERN WY UNDER A BELT OF SOMEWHAT
STRONGER 700-500 MB FLOW. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS ARE EXPECTED, AND COUPLED WITH DRY FUELS, WILL HELP SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (THOUGH TRANSIENT
PERIODS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WHERE STRONGER GUSTS
CAN OCCUR).
..DRY THUNDERSTORMS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HEATING WILL SUPPORT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
ADEQUATE FOR WEAK CONVECTION, BUT PERHAPS LIMITED PRECIPITATION.
GIVEN DRY FUELS ACROSS THE REGION, SOME DRY-THUNDERSTORM RISK IS
EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
DRY-THUNDERSTORM CONCERN IS SLOW STORM MOTIONS (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS),
WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAINFALL UNDER THE
CONVECTIVE CORES.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page