954
ACUS11 KWNS 232019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232018
TXZ000-NMZ000-232045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST
TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232018Z - 232045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A SEVERE GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SPARSE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS INTENSIFYING
THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS, WITH 40 DBZ CORES REACHING THE 30-50 KFT
RANGE. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN TO 9 C/KM (PER
20Z MESOANALYSIS) GIVEN STRONG SURFACE HEATING. AS SUCH, ONE OF THE
STRONGER STORM CORES COULD COLLAPSE AND PRODUCE A SEVERE GUST.
HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK, AND PULSE-CELLULAR STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY STORM MODE. AS SUCH, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
LOW, AND A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
..SQUITIERI/THOMPSON.. 06/23/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 30940554 33480572 34070557 34380443 34150294 33690243
33260240 32230288 31180295 30700315 30510356 30540475
30940554
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page