757
ACUS11 KWNS 232324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232323
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0623 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...
VALID 232323Z - 240130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF CORRIDORS OF HIGHER SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL MAY
BE EMERGING ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND CENTRAL IOWA AHEAD OF
TWO ORGANIZING CLUSTERS.
DISCUSSION...OVER THE PAST HOUR, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ERUPT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED COLD FRONT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
NE INTO FAR NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY TRANSIENT, BUT HAS A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING SMALL SWATHS OF SEVERE WINDS (INCLUDING A 62 MPH GUST AT
KDSM). TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DES MOINES, IA AREA, CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH ECHO TOPS
OCCASIONALLY REACHING UP TO 50 KFT AT TIMES. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
APPEARS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THIS BAND APPROACHES A
REGIONAL MLCAPE MAXIMUM NEAR 3500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION COUPLED WITH INTENSIFYING CONVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE A
RELATIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NE/IA/MO TRI-STATE AREA, A SECONDARY
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE ALONG A CONSOLIDATED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BASED ON REGIONAL VELOCITY IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY,
GOES IR IMAGERY SHOW STEADY CLOUD TOP COOLING INDICATIVE OF
INTENSIFICATION, AND COLD POOL TEMPERATURE DEFICITS ARE APPROACHING
20 F, SUGGESTING A DEEP COLD POOL IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THESE
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE MAY EMERGE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER.
..MOORE.. 06/23/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40189628 40629555 42259246 42419198 42399143 42309107
42089100 41729109 41419129 41129198 40079419 39929459
39889498 39829606 39879632 40039643 40189628
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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