908
ACUS01 KWNS 240041
SWODY1
SPC AC 240039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A
FEW SEVERE GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE.
...GREAT LAKES/MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER TO MID MISSOURI
VALLEY/ SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S. TODAY, WITH SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S F, WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE RAP
CURRENTLY IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN THE 2000 TO
3500 J/KG RANGE. ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE IN
THE 7 TO 7.5 C/KM RANGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE INTENSE
MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. A MOIST AIRMASS IS PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
60S F. THE LATEST RAP HAS MLCAPE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE IN
MOST AREAS. THIS, COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING.
..NORTHERN MAINE
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, FLOW IS WEST-NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST, WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE LINE, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F, WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE EARLY THIS EVENING, HAVE SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WITH 25 TO 35 KNOTS OF
MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE DURING THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING.
..BROYLES.. 06/24/2025
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