092
ACUS11 KWNS 240042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240042
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...
VALID 240042Z - 240215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL PERSIST FOR ROUGHLY
THE NEXT HOUR, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS BEGINNING TO WANE AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTWX SHOWS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NORTHWEST KS AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN. OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY ACROSS EASTERN KS HAS
LARGELY BEGUN TO WANE AS OUTFLOW BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD, THOUGH A
FEW LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
SHORT TERM. NEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF
THE COLD POOL ARE MOVING OUT OF THE WARM SECTOR AND INTO A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS. GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWS OCCASIONAL DEEP UPDRAFT
PULSES, SUGGESTING THAT A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A
STRONG DOWNBURST OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
FURTHER EAST CLOSER TO THE KS/MO BORDER, THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF
THE OUTFLOW COMBINED WITH NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD STORM MOTIONS HAVE
MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO FULLY REALIZE THE BUOYANT
WARM-SECTOR ENVIRONMENT (BEST CHARACTERIZED BY THE RECENT 00Z TOP
SOUNDING). IT IS UNCLEAR IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN
REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE OUTFLOW
LONG ENOUGH TO POSE A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT, BUT THIS REMAINS AT
LEAST A LOW POSSIBILITY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
STABILIZATION CLOSER TO THE 02-03 UTC PERIOD.
..MOORE.. 06/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38759577 38889614 39189648 39309692 39349757 39659788
39899773 39999725 40069666 40069607 40029549 39929523
39789503 39409492 38969502 38749530 38759577
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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