129
ACUS02 KWNS 240606
SWODY2
SPC AC 240605
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS
INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.
..SYNOPSIS
A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT
LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS WILL ALSO WEAKEN.
AREAS OF 30 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, AIDING MOVEMENT OF STORMS CLUSTERS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL RESULT IN
COOL/DRY TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM A LOW OVER NE EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, WITH 2000 J/KG MUCAPE COMMON.
SOUTH OF THE UPPER HIGH, A LOW-LATITUDE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS FL, WITH -10 C AT 500 MB OVER FL, AL, GA AND SC. THIS
WILL BOOST INSTABILITY FURTHER, EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN THOSE AREAS
WITH STEEPENED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..SOUTHEAST
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE COMMON. OF NOTE WILL BE
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM, SUGGESTING ROBUST
CONVECTION IS LIKELY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AROUND 21Z OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN, AND WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING
OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. SLOW MOVING AT FIRST, STORMS WILL FORM
INTO CLUSTERS, WITH ERRATIC MOTIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, A GENERAL
SOUTHERLY TRENDS IS EXPECTED. THE HIGH PWAT CONTENT, STEEP LAPSE
RATES, AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY ALL SUGGEST AREAS OF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS WILL DEVELOP. AS SUCH, THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
SLIGHT RISK.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH INTO GA, AL, AND THE FL
PANHANDLE AS WELL, WITHIN A SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH, AND, POSSIBLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THIS REGION SIMILARLY SHOW VERY STRONG INSTABILITY, WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST MOVING STORM CLUSTERS LIKELY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
..PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AREAS OF STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY FROM NE EASTWARD
INTO IL/IN/OH, IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. WHILE MOIST AND UNSTABLE, LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STEEP ALOFT, BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
FUEL BOUTS OF STORMS REDEVELOPING DURING THE DAY FROM NE INTO
SD/IA/SOUTHERN MN, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL
HAIL OR WIND.
TO THE WEST, CELLS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM OVER
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH HAIL POTENTIAL AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN COOL.
..JEWELL.. 06/24/2025
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