053
ACUS03 KWNS 240713
SWODY3
SPC AC 240712
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OVER PARTS OF
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
..SYNOPSIS
ON THURSDAY, A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES, PHASING WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE EXITING
THE NORTHEAST. SOUTH OF THERE, A WEAKENING UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
OVER FL, PROVIDING COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. OTHERWISE, WINDS ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE WEAK. TO THE
WEST, MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH 30-40 KT 500 MB WINDS
OVER MT.
AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME
PRODUCING SEVERE GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN
WILL OCCUR INTO EASTERN MT, IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
WAVE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DAYTIME REDEVELOPMENT
FROM KS IA/MO/IL, WITH STORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS BY 00Z. WEAK SHEAR
AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH PRIMARILY
LOCALIZED STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS.
..SOUTHEAST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY, BUT COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SUPPORT AREAS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
STORMS SHOULD AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE APPALACHIANS, AND PERHAPS ALONG
RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY CONVECTION. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..EASTERN MT
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP, BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S F WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. STILL, THE DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND MODEST
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..JEWELL.. 06/24/2025
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