314
ACUS11 KWNS 241905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241904
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-242030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT
AND FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 241904Z - 242030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED
COVERAGE OF SEVERE GUSTS, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...CONTINUED STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS SUPPORTING A
GENERAL AGITATION OF A CUMULUS FIELD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
RECENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NOTED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ONTARIO. HERE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 90 F AMID NEAR 70 F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, SUPPORTING OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN SPOTS. THESE
STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
WHERE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING 25-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BECOME MULTICELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE OF STRONG TO PERHAPS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED, SO A WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 06/24/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...
LAT...LON 44337584 44577572 44827531 44987497 45077434 45047299
45067177 45037158 44997152 44657131 43957173 43727255
43767402 43917492 44147551 44337584
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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