402
ACUS03 KWNS 241917
SWODY3
SPC AC 241916
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OVER PARTS OF
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
..SYNOPSIS
SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS ON FRIDAY
WITH A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A MODERATE
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
..MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST
A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE
VERY WEAK THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW WILL
PROVIDE A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM D2/THURSDAY CONVECTION.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE FROM KANSAS TO WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK (20 TO 25 KNOTS), BUT STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHEAST MONTANA
ON FRIDAY WHERE A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (ABOVE 3KM) IS
FORECAST. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE, IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS. MODERATE SHEAR
(25 TO 30 KNOTS) AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..BENTLEY.. 06/24/2025
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