714
ACUS02 KWNS 250529
SWODY2
SPC AC 250527
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST...AND FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND OVER PARTS OF
MONTANA ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED DAMAGING GUSTS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN.
..SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OVER FL, WITH RELATIVELY COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, ALTHOUGH WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS DAY. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE EAST WILL REMAIN BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE. AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, MODEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
TO THE WEST, A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MT,
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
AT THE SURFACE, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC, SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM KS INTO SOUTHERN WI AND
LOWER MI, AND ALSO FROM CENTRAL NY INTO EASTERN PA.
..MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PARTS OF
AL, GA, AND THE FL PANHANDLE, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THOUGH ANY EARLY CONVECTION MAY PROVIDE A RELATIVE STABLE AREA
DURING THE DAY, ADDITION DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY WEST THROUGH NORTH,
FROM MS INTO NORTHERN AL AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS,
VA/MD AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PREDICTABILITY IS A BIT LOW TO DENOTE
A SLIGHT RISK GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH POTENTIAL ONGOING
CONVECTION/STABILIZATION, BUT PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD NEED
HIGHER WIND PROBABILITIES IN LATER UPDATES.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DAYTIME HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO OVER 2000 J/KG
MUCAPE, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
CENTRAL KS INTO IA, SOUTHERN MN AND WI. MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS ARE
EXPECTED DUE TO LITTLE SHEAR, BUT A BIT STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM IA
INTO WI AND LOWER MI COULD RESULT IN FASTER MOTIONS AND PERHAPS A
CORRIDOR OF HAIL AND WIND. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
..NORTHEAST MT
STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH NEARS, WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. STORMS ARE
LIKELY FROM WEST-CENTRAL MT INTO EASTERN MT DURING THE DAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
MT. DEEP MIXED LAYERS AND MODEST WESTERLY FLOW SUGGEST A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW, OR SMALL HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN ND.
..JEWELL.. 06/25/2025
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