274
ACUS11 KWNS 251551
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251550 COR
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-251745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1432
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN NC/UPSTATE SC INTO FAR NORTHEAST
GA AND EXTREME EASTERN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 251550Z - 251745Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADLINE
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. A REMNANT EML AND SEASONABLY COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
ATOP 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 3000-4000
J/KG. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE 90S F THIS AFTERNOON,
RESULTING IN VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK, BUT MODEST NORTHEASTERLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
SOUTH FL COULD SUPPORT WEAKLY ORGANIZED STORMS. HOWEVER, EVEN
RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STORMS IN THIS REGIME WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING/POTENTIALLY SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND ISOLATED HAIL,
GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
STORM COVERAGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INTO MID AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT IS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER WESTERN NC AND VICINITY, WHERE ISOLATED INITIATION IS
UNDERWAY. THE NEED FOR SHORT-TERM WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN, BUT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH TIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA.
..DEAN/HART.. 06/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...FFC...
LAT...LON 35248440 36028330 36518194 36358126 36008117 35668122
35278163 35098201 34718260 34498321 34568355 34658408
35248440
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page