378
ACUS11 KWNS 251722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251722
MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-251915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN WV INTO PARTS OF MD...VA...DC...AND FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251722Z - 251915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN VA/MD.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTABLY WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, STRONG HEATING OF A RICHLY MOIST AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED
MLCAPE TO INCREASE INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. STORM ORGANIZATION
WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR, THOUGH WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS IF SUFFICIENT OUTFLOW CONSOLIDATION
CAN OCCUR. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED CLUSTERING, VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/HART.. 06/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 39457904 40017707 39807619 39127615 38517617 37807636
36787907 37997935 38737942 39097946 39457904
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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