896
ACUS11 KWNS 252143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252142
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-252315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252142Z - 252315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN SEVERE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS. SEVERE
WIND AND IS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT, THOUGH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR THE NEED OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE MULTICELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AMID LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
THOUGH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PRECEDES THESE STORMS, 7-8 C/KM
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE ROCKIES ARE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, ATOP 80S/60S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS, YIELDING 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW, BENEATH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A
300 MB JET STREAK, IS OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WARM
SECTOR, CONTRIBUTING TO ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND 40+ KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. AS SUCH, MULTICELLS AND TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS
MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THREAT. IF STORMS CAN GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR
MORE MCSS, A RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE WIND RISK MAY MATERIALIZE. AS
SUCH, CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/GUYER.. 06/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38360487 41590535 42910566 43260477 43080271 42330161
41440133 39830157 38760260 38350325 38250389 38360487
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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