361
ACUS11 KWNS 252220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252219
SCZ000-260015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1443
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0519 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...
VALID 252219Z - 260015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS BEGIN TO MERGE WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
DISCUSSION...TWO CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE NOW BECOME APPARENT OVER
THE CAROLINAS. THE FIRST, PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
CAROLINA COAST, APPEARS TO BE WELL-BALANCED WITH NEW, DEEP UPDRAFTS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONSOLIDATING COLD POOL. TO
THE WEST, A SECONDARY CLUSTER IS MOVING SOUTH OFF OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND INTO DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. DESPITE BEING OUTFLOW
DOMINANT, GOES 1-MINUTE IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST CONVECTION ERUPTING ON
THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, HINTING THAT THIS
CLUSTER MAY ATTAIN A MORE BALANCED UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL.
BOTH OF THESE CLUSTERS ARE PROPAGATING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 3500 J/KG, AND WHILE SOME
ANVIL SHADING IS OCCURRING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CLUSTERS, THE
LACK OF WIDESPREAD BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL SC SUGGESTS A DRY, DEEPLY MIXING
ENVIRONMENT IS DOWNSTREAM OF BOTH CLUSTERS. THESE LOW-LEVEL
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATIONS AND DAMAGING TO SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY BE MAXIMIZED WHERE THE TWO CLUSTERS MERGE IN THE COMING
1-2 HOURS, AND POTENTIALLY ALONG A SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE
DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE.
..MOORE.. 06/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34868140 34558215 34308229 34108223 33748189 33518165
33308131 33218080 33298011 33407968 33637949 33947950
34217975 34838085 34908122 34868140
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page