295
ACUS03 KWNS 260717
SWODY3
SPC AC 260716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SYNOPSIS AND DISCUSSION
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY, BEFORE HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MT AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BUILD, WITH
MUCAPE OVER 4000 J/KG FORECAST FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MN AND
IA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
CENTRAL NE, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAINTAIN A NORTHWARD FLUX OF THETA-E
WITH A DEEPENING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE
STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS TROUGH, WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EAST
AND PERSIST THROUGH EVENING.
WHILE SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR INITIAL
ROBUST CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO RISK,
BEFORE STORMS FORM INTO PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
LIKELY. THE SURGING THETA-E OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING
MAY ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO PERSIST INTO WESTERN WI LATE.
ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC, WITH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF AFTERNOON
STORMS LIKELY. POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT LOCALIZED
STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS. PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
DENOTE PRECISELY WHICH AREAS MAY SEE A LOW-END SEVERE GUST THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 06/26/2025
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