026
ACUS01 KWNS 261611
SWODY1
SPC AC 261609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA,
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
..UPPER MIDWEST
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING OVER NE/SD MOVING
EASTWARD. LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN IA. THESE STORMS WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS, WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES WILL BE 2000-3000 J/KG. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AS THE STORMS SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FROM THE SURFACE LOW EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN WI, A CORRIDOR OF BACKED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
(ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE), THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW
TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING AGAIN TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST PA TO THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTH GA. THIS CORRIDOR WILL BE HOT/HUMID
AGAIN TODAY, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT ARE
WEAK, SUGGESTING DISORGANIZED/PULSE CONVECTIVE MODES. HOWEVER,
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAK WINDS ALOFT,
WILL INTRODUCE A SLGT RISK FOR THIS CORRIDOR GIVEN THE CONSENSUS OF
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE THREAT.
..HART/THORNTON.. 06/26/2025
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