440
ACUS11 KWNS 261737
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261736
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-261930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1454
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST MO
AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261736Z - 261930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL
INCREASE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NE
AND NORTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM
SOUTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN. WHILE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED HEATING
TO SOME EXTENT, RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING NEAR A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL IA, WITH
OTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO THE FRONT.
BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT
ACROSS THE MCD AREA. SOME THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND A TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA (SEE MCD 1452 FOR MORE INFORMATION). FARTHER
SOUTH, DESPITE WEAKER SHEAR, A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITH A THREAT
OF DAMAGING WIND MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
IA AND NORTHWEST MO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN ORDER TO ADDRESS
THESE THREATS.
..DEAN/HART.. 06/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177
41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560
40439599 41129582
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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