872
ACUS11 KWNS 261943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-262115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHEAST
MN...SOUTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 463...
VALID 261943Z - 262115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 463 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...BOTH AN EASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE LINE AND DEVELOPING
CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHEAST MN
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IA, WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
EAST OF THE LINE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WI. MLCAPE HAS INCREASED
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT, WITH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT FARTHER NORTH, WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE PERSISTED AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S F.
THE BROKEN LINE MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN EARLIER PRODUCED A
REPORTED TORNADO IN FREEBORN COUNTY, AND THIS PORTION OF THE LINE
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS IT TRAVERSES THE WARM
FRONTAL ZONE, WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS LOCALLY ENHANCED (AS
NOTED IN THE KARX VWP). THE DEVELOPING CELLS EAST OF THE LINE COULD
ALSO BEGIN TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY IF ONE OR MORE OF
THESE CELLS CAN MATURE AND TAKE ON MORE OF A FRONT-PARALLEL MOTION,
LEADING TO INCREASED RESIDENCE TIME IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. CELL
MERGERS INTO THE PRIMARY LINE COULD ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY INCREASED
TORNADO POTENTIAL.
ASIDE FROM THE TORNADO POTENTIAL, LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 06/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016
43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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