903
ACUS11 KWNS 262031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262031
IAZ000-262200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465...
VALID 262031Z - 262200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE LINE HAS EVOLVED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OTHER SMALLER CLUSTERS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INTO SOUTHWEST IA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
RATHER WEAK, AND WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL
25-35 KT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE 1-3 KM AGL LAYER (AS NOTED IN THE
KDMX VWP) COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED DAMAGING-WIND POTENTIAL.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW TO ADVANCE AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE, BUT ANY SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS THAT BECOME ORIENTED
MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW (SUCH AS THE
ONE ACROSS BUTLER/GRUNDY COUNTIES, IA) COULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED SWATHS OF WIND DAMAGE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
MODESTLY FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH COULD ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT.
..DEAN.. 06/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146
42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403
41959369
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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