531
ACUS11 KWNS 262130
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262129
MOZ000-KSZ000-262300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1460
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0429 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262129Z - 262300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN OCCASIONAL
SEVERE GUST THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MATURED ALONG A CONFLUENCE
ZONE ACROSS EASTERN KS, WHERE MRMS MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS 50+
DBZ ECHOES WELL EXCEEDING 30 KFT. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK,
THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ATOP A MOIST SURFACE AIRMASS,
CHARACTERIZED BY 70+ F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. GIVEN A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER, 8 C/KM LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE, BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO 3000 J/KG. AS SUCH, THE STRONGER PULSE-CELLULAR AND
MULTICELLULAR STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WET DOWNBURSTS AND
ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
..SQUITIERI/GUYER.. 06/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37079672 37159695 37309699 37559694 38019676 38469644
39349600 39539556 39559497 39419451 39099433 38359437
37959448 37609468 37179523 37019595 37079672
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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