569
ACUS11 KWNS 271711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271710
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-271915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN IN INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI AND FAR
NORTHWEST OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271710Z - 271915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS UNDERWAY ALONG/EAST OF A COLD FRONT
FROM NORTHERN IN INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN LOWER MI. DESPITE WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, CONTINUED HEATING OF A RICHLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR/ABOVE 1500-2000
J/KG WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK, BUT MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORM
CLUSTERING WITH A THREAT OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.
TIMING OF THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN IL
MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN IN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO
LOWER MI MAY BE MORE ISOLATED UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING-WIND THREAT
APPEARS IMMINENT.
..DEAN/HART.. 06/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...
LAT...LON 40848726 42288597 43878416 44248364 44368322 44068255
43398217 42738244 41858289 41618362 40828573 40238715
40848726
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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