321
ACUS11 KWNS 271945
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271945
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-272145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1473
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NE INTO SOUTHERN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271945Z - 272145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING, OUTFLOW-DOMINATED CONVECTION SHOULD YIELD A
THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS INCREASING ALONG THE DRYLINE
ACROSS THE NE PANHANDLE INTO FAR NORTHEAST CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY TO PERSIST AS STORM-SCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE GENERATED
WITHIN AN INITIALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AS OUTFLOWS
IMPINGE ON PROGRESSIVELY GREATER BUOYANCY INTO CENTRAL NE AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL SD, A THREAT FOR SEVERE GUSTS MAY PERSIST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF DRYLINE-FORCED CONVECTION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM OWING TO PERSISTENT
WARM/MOIST-SECTOR MLCIN, AND THIS MAY CURTAIL A GREATER HAIL THREAT.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 42680232 41480278 40880257 40660182 41370051 42040005
42599996 43800013 43750155 42680232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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