001  
ACUS11 KWNS 272037  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 272036  
NDZ000-SDZ000-272230-  
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1475  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0336 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY  
 
VALID 272036Z - 272230Z  
 
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT  
 
SUMMARY...INITIAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
HOURS, WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE TO  
GIANT HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELL OR TWO,  
ALONG WITH TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND THREATS. WATCH ISSUANCE IS  
EXPECTED WITH MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING.  
 
DISCUSSION...A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS  
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 22-23Z ALONG A WEAK  
SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IN WESTERN ND. MORE PROBABLE STORM DEVELOPMENT  
IS ANTICIPATED TOWARDS SUNSET, WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A  
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER SD/NE. THE INITIALLY SUBTLE/WEAK  
FORCING FOR ASCENT LENDS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO SUSTAINED STORM  
TIMING/LOCATION. BUT ONCE STORMS ARE SUSTAINED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS  
VEERING TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES  
WILL YIELD A FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  
IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOUTHERN  
EXTENT (AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z UNR SOUNDING) AND AMPLE BUOYANCY, THIS  
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A RISK FOR BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL-SIZE  
HAIL IN A SUPERCELL OR TWO BEFORE STORMS CONGEAL INTO AN MCS  
TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS CENTRAL ND THIS EVENING.  
 
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/27/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
 
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...  
 
LAT...LON 48969906 47899898 46669959 45730126 45770227 45920301  
47880243 48840187 49000043 48969906  
 
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN  
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