882
ACUS11 KWNS 272051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272050
NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-272245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1476
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN KY INTO WV...WESTERN/SOUTHERN VA...NC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272050Z - 272245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST HOUR ACROSS PARTS OF NC, AND ALSO FROM EASTERN KY INTO WV.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION, BUT BUOYANCY IS STRONG,
WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
RELATIVELY LARGE PW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
RISK OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. SOME OUTFLOW
CONSOLIDATION IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME, IF A SUFFICIENT CONCENTRATION
OF STORMS CAN DEVELOP. THIS COULD LEAD TO A SOMEWHAT GREATER CHANCE
FOR DAMAGING WIND, THOUGH THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
..DEAN/HART.. 06/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...
LAT...LON 35167737 35148029 36378132 36888191 37208233 37788271
38018238 38748076 38937966 38497935 37847893 37497877
37177843 37077702 36347659 35537683 35167737
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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