341
ACUS11 KWNS 280017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280017
NDZ000-280115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0717 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 468...
VALID 280017Z - 280115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 468 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS ONGOING ACROSS WW468 SHOULD CONTINUE TO MATURE INTO
SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING. AN INITIAL RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE.
DISCUSSION...ACROSS WW468, SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INITIAL
UPDRAFTS ARE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING ACROSS ND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AIDED BY 2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP, SEVERAL SUPERCELLS SHOULD MATURE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS LIKELY. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL TO 3-4 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
WILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MODEST INITIALLY, HODOGRPAHS SHOULD
BEGIN TO EXPAND THIS EVENING WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONAL UPSCALE GROWTH MAY ALSO
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT LATER TONIGHT.
..LYONS.. 06/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 46450232 48720165 48899921 48919834 46659815 46069906
46050168 46450232
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN
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