605
ACUS11 KWNS 280547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280547
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-280645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WESTERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 280547Z - 280645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LINGERING ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. A FEW SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL, AND WW 468 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
0600Z.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST HI-RESOLUTION RADAR IMAGERY FROM KMVX SHOWS
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POTENTIALLY
SEVERE CELLS. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A 1006 MB
LOW, ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG INSTABILITY WHERE THE RAP HAS
MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
KNOTS WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7 AND 8 C/KM. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER, A CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE, WHICH COMBINED WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY,
SHOULD RESULT IN THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL WITH TIME.
..BROYLES/SMITH.. 06/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47319604 47059562 46579531 45989532 45509567 45339647
45419852 45609932 45899963 46329977 46749964 47099940
47369882 47449730 47409653 47319604
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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