781
ACUS11 KWNS 281815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281814
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-281945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281814Z - 281945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
SPARSE NATURE OF THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AMID A MODIFYING AIRMASS BEHIND AN EARLIER MCS.
HERE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S F, THAT
COMBINED WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS AND 8 C/KM 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES, ARE
BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG. HOWEVER, MODEST DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW IS RESULTING IN WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WITH BUOYANCY
CONSTRAINED TO TALL/NARROW PROFILES, THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS ORIGINATING FROM THE STRONGER STORM CORES. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED, SO A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 06/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...
LAT...LON 40028274 40408229 40738155 40818107 40728061 40418018
39967993 39557988 39238005 38968044 38758097 38628159
38578201 38718243 38868271 38988289 40028274
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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