985
ACUS11 KWNS 281851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281851
MNZ000-NDZ000-282015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281851Z - 282015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, AND COULD BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...EARLY STORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT, LIKELY AIDED BY A MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL ND. RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS
EARLIER AND FARTHER NORTH REGIME, UNLIKE THE BULK OF 12Z HREF
GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATED THAT FAR NORTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN
WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION LATER TODAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF A DECAYED
MCS LIKELY DELAYING THAT LATTER REGIME UNTIL EVENING, THE SHORT-TERM
SEVERE THREAT INTO LATE AFTERNOON MAY BE CONFINED TO A PORTION OF
EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN. LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK
AND GENERALLY VEERED, YIELDING MINIMAL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. BUT THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL THREAT. OVERALL STORM COVERAGE COULD BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LACK OF CUMULUS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
..GRAMS/HART.. 06/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
LAT...LON 47409879 48039857 48469814 48429711 48139666 47619648
46729635 46349652 46129671 46109842 46589912 47139894
47409879
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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